Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have risen to unprecedented levels, and Russia has made its intentions very clear: it won’t accept Ukraine to attempt to regain the territories lost to the pro-Russian separatists – and the Russian Armed Forces won’t tolerate the annexation of Ukraine to NATO. About Russia Defeat Ukraine is given below.
Since 2014, when Ukraine changed its government from a pro-Russian president to a government allied to the US and EU, Russians have been trying to get back its influence in Ukraine – and now, Russia is on the verge of launching an invasion of Ukraine that analysts place as close as early 2022… A daring move that could unleash a long war!
What would a Russian invasion of Ukraine look like? What were the advantages and disadvantages of the combat forces, and who would win in a hypothetical war?
The Main Reasons of Russia Defeating Ukraine
1. Russia Would Definitely Defeat Ukraine in the Seas
In Ukraine, the main military actions would take place on land and in the air because Russia could easily secure control over the seas. Ukrainian Naval Forces are comprised of a fleet of only 11 ships and 6,500 men (it may increase to 43 warships and 9,000 men). On the other hand, the Russian Navy is comprised by:
- 1 aircraft carrier: Aircraft Carrier Admiral Kuznetsov.
- 2 Kirov-class battlecruiser.
- 15 destroyers and cruisers.
- 100 frigates and corvettes.
- 12 general submarines and almost 60 attack submarines.
- 150,000 men.
2. Russia Would Not Take Long to Achieve Air Superiority
For its defense, the Ukrainian Air Force has 175 aircraft according to the World Directory of Modern Military Aircraft. Many aircraft are obsolete soviet airplanes, and the most modern are MiG-29, SU-24, and SU-25. However, they are also at a disadvantage compared to modern air combat standards. In addition, the Ukrainian Air Force is inexperienced compared to the combat readiness and unparalleled technical superiority of Russia.
In fact, Russia has the world’s 2nd place by active combat aircraft with 4,163 military aircraft and almost 200,000 men in service, which is more than enough to beat Ukraine. So, the air campaign would be a decisive phase of the invasion, and the achievement of air superiority would be a priority to facilitate the invasion and the advance of armored divisions artillery infantry.
3. Ukraine is Strong in Ground Operations… But Russia is Stronger
Probably the strongest branch of the Ukrainian armed forces is the Ukrainian Army. It is composed of 250,000 troops and almost one million reservists. Although, on the other hand, its army is heterogeneous. It has many pro-Western Ukrainian members in the west and pro-Russian members in the east. So, many experts point to possible mass defections to the Russian side.
Ukraine has a formidable armored fleet of over 1,100 active tanks. Quite impressive numbers until we remember that the bulk of its force is made up of Soviet tanks and armored vehicles now considered outdated. Russia has 280,000 active army men. But, the most lethal component of its ground offensive will be its self-propelled artillery divisions capable of hitting and destroying targets dozens of miles away with great precision.
So. it is clear that Russia has a decisive advantage in the sea, air, and land. In fact, Russia has every chance of winning… unless NATO intervenes.
NATO Is the Only Real Defense of Ukraine
Different scenarios could have very different outcomes but the most likely is a limited conflict that would allow Russia to support and strengthen the pro-Russian fighters to weaken Ukraine. A conventional conflict in which Russia would directly fight is less likely because it would involve an escalation of the conflict between Russia and NATO, and NATO has almost 3 million Armed forces personnel.
So, Russia and NATO will measure forces to see who has more influence in Ukraine in the next years. For NATO, the risk of doing nothing would be to let Russia expand its influence over Ukraine. While for Russia, the risk of doing nothing would be to allow NATO to place military bases on its border.
Today, neither side is willing to give in, and they are increasingly arming their forces which could provoke a conflict in 2022. If the war comes or not, the conflict will still be present and Russia has the advantage so far.